China’s surging demand commodities defies expectations, with robust growth noted in copper, iron ore, and oil demand, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs. The investment bank reported an impressive 8% year-on-year increase in China’s demand for copper, while appetite for iron ore and oil saw substantial gains of 7% and 6%, respectively, surpassing Goldman’s earlier projections.
Driving Factors: Green Economy and Infrastructure Boom
Goldman Sachs attributed this exceptional demand to a confluence of factors, including the vigorous growth of the green economy, infrastructure development, and ongoing property projects. Despite ongoing challenges in China’s property sector, the green economy has exhibited remarkable resilience, particularly in the field of onshore solar installations, which have already surpassed the combined total of all previous years’ installations in 2023.
China proudly boasts an operational solar capacity of 228 GW, surpassing the rest of the world’s capacity combined. Furthermore, the nation is making significant strides towards doubling its wind and solar capacity, achieving this goal five years ahead of the 2030 target. This transition towards a greener economy has led to a substantial surge in demand for metals like copper, with China’s green copper demand soaring by an impressive 71% in July compared to the previous year.
Resurgent Manufacturing Boosts Base Metals
A resurgence in China’s manufacturing sector has also played a pivotal role in driving up demand for base metals such as aluminum. The positive trends witnessed in manufacturing during the third quarter have been accompanied by a notable uptick in the import of base metals, reflecting a rebound in industrial production. In August, China’s industrial production expanded by 4.5% year-on-year, surpassing earlier expectations.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the demand for these metals will continue to thrive, offering solid support as current positive drivers remain resilient.
Rising Oil Demand
China’s oil demand has been on an upward trajectory, primarily due to the rapid recovery observed in oil-intensive service sectors like transportation. Goldman analysts have noted record levels of internal mobility, supported by data on congestion and domestic flights. However, they anticipate that the growth rate will decelerate significantly in the coming year.
Commodities Shine Amid Economic Complexities
The remarkable surge in commodities demand is particularly noteworthy in light of the broader macroeconomic challenges facing China. While the Chinese stock market grapples with finding stability, commodities have displayed resilience and a positive response to the monetary expansion policies of the People’s Bank of China.
The central bank’s commitment to maintaining stable credit expansion and ample liquidity has led traders to view commodities as a more favorable option, especially in anticipation of marginal improvements in China’s real economy.
Despite the ongoing complexities in the economic landscape, China’s unwavering appetite for commodities suggests a potentially promising outlook for this vital sector.